2+3+4PM Osama bin Laden

Great article in the New York Times last week helped me clarify some of my thinking about the effects and aftermath of the killing of Osama bin Laden. Basically, he said there are four areas or questions left over afterwards:

How will this affect the Arab uprisings? Probably in a very positive way since now the “alternative narrative” of bin Laden about the Islamic takeover of the Middle East through theocracy has been shattered. Not only because he is dead, but because he died in a million-dollar mansion rather than some obscure cave and he was heavily edited to be marketed as strong and competent rather than aged and weak. The myth was destroyed along with the man. This means that peace-seeking democracy-lovers in those areas are less hindered by the extremists whose cause has been dealt a heavy blow symbolically.

How will this affect the war in Afghanistan? It offers a way out that appeals both to liberals and conservatives opposed to the ongoing war because now that bin Laden is dead, the original purpose of the war is at least ostensibly achieved. It remains to be seen what Obama does with it, but he could start drawing down potentially.

How will this affect terrorism itself? Al Queda grew tremendously under bin Laden, who was an innovator and a highly effective organizer. What was once quite impotent before 9/11 has really developed over time. Although he is gone, many of the major players who came into the cause because of him remain and it’s not clear the long-term effect. But I would say that the movement itself is seriously weakened, probably not compared to pre 9/11, but compared to 2011 with bin Laden still alive. And at this point, that’s the only real comparison we can make.

How will this affect relations with the Muslim world? Remains to be seen as the protests unfold and as we interact with them on new (and old) issues. But if peaceful elements in the uprisings gain strength and we can support new democracies and stifle old dictatorships even as terrorism wanes because of the death of man and myth, there’s at least hope for significantly better years ahead.